June 6th, 2010 
Aaron Turpen As if to back up research released by Frost & Sullivan last month, Pike Research has released their own research forecasting 300,000 medium- and heavy-duty hybrid trucks on the road, worldwide, by 2015 – a 63% growth rate.
This compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63% is based on projections of 300,000 unit sales between 2010 and 2015 as projected trends raise globally. Currently, North America is the leading region for hybrid fleet sales in these markets, but Asia Pacific is expected to surpass us in 2011 thanks to heavy growth in both Japan and China. The U.S. will remain the largest single market, however, with China following closely behind.
Most Asian sales will be fueled by new introductions such as the Fuso Canter hybrid recently released by Mitsubishi. Several other manufacturers in Japan, China, India, the U.S. and Europe are expected to release hybrid medium- and heavy-duty models in the next few years, fueling more sales.
With fuel savings of 5-50% for most hybrid vehicles in the Class 4-8 categories, they are becoming popular alternatives for fleet managers who want to lower costs over time while raising the company’s green credentials (and the resulting tax credits). Especially with governments raising emissions regulations and now imposing fuel economy requirements.
While Pike’s research also shows that battery-electric (or all-electric/plug-in) trucks in the medium and heavy classes will also grow, the option will not likely be as popular due to range and cost considerations. For the near future, Pike sees hybrids as the power train of choice for fleets in these categories.
Overall, Pike sees hybrids, plug-in hybrids, battery electrics, power-takeoff equipment, and hydraulic hybrids as the leading technologies for the next half-decade.
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The included chart shows only 100,000 world-wide sale in 2015, not the 300,000 in the tittle. Do I miss anything? In any event, these are not that great comparing to the total sale of millions.
The “leading technologies for the next half-decade” in the last sentence are not that cost effective. The real energy wastes are in the engine itself, which wastes the great majority of energy. The century-old inefficient 4-cycle engines should be replaced, like the old light bulbs, with new types (such as the D-cycle).
The chart is compounding, so each year ads to the last.
What you presume, as do most who aren’t in the industry, is that everything can be changed quickly to match “new tech” in a short amount of time. Infrastructure (fueling, repair/maintenance, supply) and other changes take a lot of time.
Most medium-duty trucks have a 5-7 year service life. A company isn’t likely going to dump a 2-year old truck just to save 12% or 20% on fuel with a new one. These trucks are often close to $100,000 a piece.